Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under <scp>RCP4</scp>.5 and <scp>RCP8</scp>.5 climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations

Abstract The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) driven by data from the CMIP5 Earth Model HadGEM2‐ES was used to simulate daily precipitation over tropical Americas for both current and future climate, including distinct scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 8.5) different time horizons (short‐term, mid‐term long‐term changes). major objective evaluate possible changes in extreme events, with emphasis on intensity of events duration wet dry spells. According RAMS, longer spells are expected most regions future, indications Northeast Brazil, Caribbean, Northern Amazon, shorter Central America Amazon. With exception there is a general tendency towards increased frequency intense Americas.